Cancun June Forecast: What Travelers Need to Know About The Unusual Weather

Vacationers and residents in Cancun and the Riviera Maya can breathe a sigh of relief—local meteorologists are predicting a quiet end to June, with no tropical cyclones expected to form in the region.

That’s right: no hurricanes, no tropical storms, just blue skies and beach days ahead.

Luis Antonio Morales Ocaña, a meteorologist with Playa del Carmen’s Civil Protection department, says that current atmospheric conditions—like a surprising cooling of Atlantic waters and stabilizing Saharan dust—are preventing tropical waves from developing into storms. It’s a rare anomaly, but a welcome one for travelers heading to paradise this month.

⚠️ But Don’t Let the Calm Fool You—The Season Is Just Getting Started

Here’s the catch: while Cancun may be getting a break right now, it’s not time to get too comfortable.

International experts, including NOAA, are warning that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season could be one of the most active on record, thanks to unusually warm ocean temperatures throughout the region.

So yes, June is shaping up beautifully—but this could very well be the calm before the storm.

🌡️ What’s Behind the Unusual Weather?

Normally, by this point in the season, we’ve already seen some early tropical activity or at least a few well-developed tropical waves with cyclone potential. But this year? Things are playing out a little differently.

Another piece of the puzzle, according to local forecasters, is an unusual cooling pattern far off the coast of Africa that is weakening tropical waves before they have a chance to grow. Luis Antonio Morales Ocaña, meteorologist with Playa del Carmen’s Civil Protection department, says this Atlantic cooling anomaly has been lingering since early in the year, and it’s playing a big role in preventing storm formation.

Add to that a layer of Saharan dust, which acts as a natural stabilizer in the atmosphere, and you’ve got a recipe for a storm-free June—even though the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are already sizzling at around 29°C. High pressure continues to dominate the region, putting the brakes on any systems that might otherwise start to organize.

Even the rain has been spotty at best. Despite a few recent showers, meteorologists confirm that the rainy season hasn’t truly started yet, and that the region is still in a prolonged drought.

Here’s what’s happening, according to Morales Ocaña and regional meteorologists:

• Saharan dust is helping suppress storm development by keeping the atmosphere stable.
• Unusual cooling far off the coast of Africa is weakening tropical waves before they can intensify.
• High-pressure systems over the Caribbean are keeping storm formation at bay, despite warm sea temperatures.
• The rainy season hasn’t officially started—recent showers have been brief and scattered.
• Record-breaking heat has gripped the region.

🕒 A Golden Window to Get Prepared

Local officials are calling this lull in activity a rare opportunity.

With nothing brewing in the Atlantic or Caribbean in the short term, now is the ideal time to prepare—before the season ramps up.

Whether you’re visiting for a few days or living here full-time, it pays to have a plan in place. Here’s how you can stay storm-smart:

✈️ For Tourists: What You Should Do

• Know your hotel or vacation rental’s hurricane safety procedures. Ask the front desk or your host where to go and what to do if a warning is issued.
• Buy travel insurance that includes weather-related coverage—just in case your plans get disrupted. You can also check out these hotels that give refunds in the event of a hurricane we covered here.
• Pay attention to local alerts. Resorts and Protección Civil will keep you informed if anything changes.
• Keep backup copies (digital and physical) of passports, ID, and travel confirmations in a safe place.

🏠 For Residents & Expats: Prepare Now

Even if you’ve weathered storms before, don’t wait until the forecast changes to act. A little prep now can save a lot of stress later.

• Inspect hurricane shutters and trim trees around your property to reduce storm debris.
• Restock your emergency kit with bottled water, canned food, flashlights, batteries, and medications.
• Review your family evacuation plan, and make sure everyone knows where to go if needed.
• Keep gas tanks full and phones charged when storm threats appear on the radar.

📅 What to Expect After June

While models show tropical cyclone activity won’t kick off locally until early to mid-July, peak hurricane season is still ahead. Historically, August through October is when the Atlantic basin sees the most activity, with early September being the most active period.

NOAA’s 2025 outlook even suggests this could be a “hyperactive” season—so a quiet June should be viewed as a perfect head start to get prepared.

For a closer look at this year’s hurricane season forecast, check out our full coverage: Cancun Hurricane Season 2025: When Does It Start & What Travelers Need To Know

🎉 Bottom Line: Enjoy the Calm, But Stay Ready

So while the forecast for June in Cancun is all sunshine and no storms, the message from experts is loud and clear: enjoy it, but don’t get caught off guard.

This is a golden opportunity to plan ahead, stay alert, and make sure you’re ready for whatever the season might bring.

Because in the Mexican Caribbean, peace of mind is just as important as a perfect tan.

— Your friends at The Cancun Sun